“It’s much better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong”.

I chose this Pierre Wack quote (taken from The World and South Africa in the 2010s as the title for my post because for me it ties together some key elements of scenario planning:

  • we are not trying to predict exactly what will happen in the future
  • effective scenario planning moves us away from being tied to only one outcome, or future story
  • SP is not an exact science – there is an element of intuition and creativity inherent in its design

There are of course other ideas which are also important, such as working collaboratively, but for me the above three points were things that came as a surprise to me, but which I really like.

Out of the SP examples included in our course material, the NAPDI North Star scenarios really resonated with me. I liked seeing how SP can be used outside of a business / commercial / governmental setting. For me, the process they went through enabled a strong community voice to be heard and created the opportunity for people to come together. From the document it seems clear that everyone involved took the process seriously while at the same time having some fun – the news headlines are great! The input from different parties is also clearly visible, which I think is important with an initiative such as this one. Would I like to be involved in something like this? Absolutely.

Thinking about SP in relation to my own context is something I’m still trying to get my head around. I’m not sure yet how to go about identifying the key issue, which as Tim Nelson outlined in his blog post is crucial. Also, I’ve got many possible key uncertainties floating around in my head which may or may not be relevant to my topic. Also, I’m not sure how far into the future we’re supposed to be thinking when we come up with uncertainties and scenarios. Are we taking a similar timeframe to Niki (ie. 5 years) or are we looking more longterm, such as 15 or 20 years? Or is it up to us to choose? More thinking to be done on this over the weekend! I do think, however, that SP is a useful tool for schools in general and also for my chosen area, ie. technology & assessment. Finally, I’ve really enjoyed this section 2 of the SP4Ed mooc – it’s been challenging thinking but interesting and stimulating , and the twitter chats are fun!    🙂


One thought on ““It’s much better to be vaguely right than precisely wrong”.

  1. Great choice of quote for your title! We still have time to think about uncertainties. We will dedicate a session next week to this topic.

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